Will the '“law firm of the future” need fewer lawyers?
A report from the American Bar Association suggests that the demand for lawyers, at least in the United States, might have begun to subside. 38,020 students started their first year of law school during the autumn 2022 term, compared to 42,718 in 2021, according to the report. Meanwhile, there has been a significant increase in enrollments in non-J.D. programs.
Although this data is limited to the U.S., we have begun to notice what might be — and we stress "might be" — the start of a similar trend in some other jurisdictions as well.
Is this a one-time anomaly in the data, perhaps sparked by the COVID -19 pandemic; or could it be the start of a trend that might accelerate as we move into the second half of the 2020s? At this point it is difficult to validate clear correlations between the introduction of advanced legal services technology, a decreasing demand for lawyers (as distinguished from the demand for legal services), and a drop in J.D. enrollments in the United States; but we suspect that is it more probable than not that they will emerge over the next five years.
Our firm has predicted for several years now that, as technology continues to enhance the productivity of individual lawyers, especially associates in law firms, and some functions formerly performed in some law firms by lawyers are outsourced, law firms might need to "right-size" themselves, which will frequently mean fewer associates. In fact, this trend appears to be emerging already, as suggested by an examination of the time records and financial reports of law firms throughout the world. The good news for associates is that each one can be much more valuable to a law firm (and should command commensurately higher compensation); the bad news is that most law firms will find that they need fewer of them to be profitable and productive.
We also have introduced concepts, tools, and methods to help law firms of all sizes, especially small and midsize firms, to anticipate, plan for, and execute responses to the challenges and opportunities of "the incredible shrinking law firm."
Your law firm should include this topic in your strategic and business planning discussions. Click here, or contact us by secure e-mail using the buttons at the top and bottom of this page, for more information about how Walker Clark LLC can facilitate a well-informed discussion and planning about current and future needs for legal talent.