Southeastern Europe Watch List for 2026
Law firms across Southeastern Europe enter 2026 facing a mix of opportunity and risk shaped by EU enlargement dynamics, regional investment flows, and shifting energy and security architectures. Five developments stand out as especially important for law firms in the region to monitor closely in 2026.
Law firms in Southeastern Europe that monitor these five developments—politicized enlargement, conditional rule‑of‑law funding, asymmetric growth and investment, a rewired energy map, and digitally driven legal transformation—will be better positioned to serve clients, remain successfully competitive against foreign firms from outside the region, and shape the region’s evolving legal landscape in 2026.
1. A More Political EU Enlargement Cycle
EU enlargement has moved back to the center of EU geopolitics, with the Balkans recast as a strategic buffer amid global competition and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. For firms in candidate and potential candidate countries, this means that accession is now as much about rule-of-law credibility and geopolitical alignment as it is about technical compliance.
Dynamics for 2026
The EU’s 2025–2026 enlargement agenda emphasizes “gradual integration”: Western Balkan states gain staged access to elements of the Single Market and EU programs in exchange for concrete reforms, especially in justice and anti‑corruption.
Montenegro and Albania are treated as front‑runners, with some EU officials suggesting that Montenegro could technically complete negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania could also advance significantly if it maintains reform momentum.
Implications for law firms
Advisory demand on EU‑law alignment will grow, particularly in competition, state aid, public procurement, environmental law, and data protection as candidate states transpose complex EU directives at pace.
Firms will need stronger EU‑law and lobbying capabilities as clients ask how to structure investments, M&A, and cross‑border operations to anticipate staged access to EU markets, SEPA, and EU funding instruments.
Political backsliding remains a hard risk: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s internal tensions (including challenges to the authority of state‑level institutions and the High Representative) could slow accession steps and add uncertainty to the legal environment. Firms must be ready to advise on political‑risk allocation in contracts and investment protections in such volatile contexts.
2. Rule-of-Law Pressures and Conditional EU Funding
The rule‑of‑law agenda in the region is no longer a technocratic side issue; it is tied directly to EU money, market access, and investor confidence. Several reports through 2024–2025 underscore that persistent political pressure on judiciaries and entrenched corruption remain barriers to both enlargement and foreign investment.
Dynamics for 2026
The European Commission’s 2025 Rule of Law Reports highlight ongoing political interference in the judiciary in Serbia, North Macedonia, and Montenegro, and emphasize weak follow‑up by judicial councils and governments.
The EU is increasingly willing to use conditionality: access to certain funds and elements of the internal market is linked to demonstrable progress on judicial independence, anti‑corruption frameworks, and media freedom.
Regional initiatives, such as the EU‑supported Employment and Social Affairs Platform review of Western Balkan social‑rights alignment, show how rule‑of‑law and social‑policy benchmarks are converging into a broader “governance” test for the region.
Implications for law firms
Compliance and investigations work should expand, as foreign investors demand stronger anti‑corruption policies, internal investigations, and due diligence on counterparties and public‑sector interactions.
Administrative and constitutional litigation may increase as domestic actors challenge new laws and measures adopted under EU pressure, particularly in judicial reform and media regulation.
Firms will need to track and translate evolving EU conditionality into practical advice: for example, how non‑compliance with rule‑of‑law benchmarks can delay infrastructure funding, change procurement rules, or trigger suspension clauses in public‑private partnerships.
3. An Investment Push Coupled With Slower EU Growth
Despite global uncertainty, Southeastern Europe is attracting renewed attention from investors seeking growth and near‑shoring opportunities, even as broader EU demand remains subdued. The tension between regional optimism and external headwinds will shape transactional and restructuring work in 2026.
Dynamics for 2026
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projects Western Balkan growth averaging 2.7% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, with tourism‑dependent economies like Albania and Montenegro particularly sensitive to EU‑area demand.
A new EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans mobilizes around EUR 2 billion in grants and up to EUR 4 billion in loans to accelerate convergence, focusing on connectivity, energy, and private‑sector development.
UNDP‑backed SDG Investor Maps in Serbia and other states highlight significant, under‑used potential in renewable energy, infrastructure, and impact investment, with at least one major renewable‑energy MoU in Serbia already valued at around EUR 2 billion.
At the same time, broader European legal‑services and economic forecasts point to only modest EU‑wide growth, which could temper export‑led expansion and favor selective, value‑driven deals over volume.
Implications for law firms
Cross‑border M&A and project finance work throughout Southeastern Europe should grow in sectors such as renewables, logistics, agribusiness, tourism, and IT, often involving complex financing structures that blend EU funds, IFI lending, and private capital.
Firms will need strong state‑aid and public‑procurement expertise to navigate the interplay between EU‑funded projects, national incentives, and competition rules under the Growth Plan.
With EU demand still relatively weak, some export‑oriented companies may face liquidity and solvency stress, creating opportunities (and risks) for restructuring, distressed M&A, and cross‑border insolvency work.
4. A Rewired Energy and Infrastructure Map
The war in Ukraine and Europe’s broader quest for strategic autonomy are reshaping energy, transport, and digital infrastructure across Central and Southeastern Europe. This reconfiguration runs directly through the Balkans, making the region central to new gas, LNG, and electricity corridors as well as to “green transition” projects.
Dynamics for 2026
Regional actors including Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Ukraine are developing a “vertical gas corridor” to facilitate bidirectional gas flows between Greek LNG terminals and Ukraine, crossing multiple Balkan states.
A new energy‑corridor product introduced in June 2025 offers firm monthly capacity from Greece to Ukraine through Balkan transit states, signaling that new long‑term transport contracts and infrastructure investments are underway.
Ukraine’s integration into the ENTSO‑E electricity network and its use of Greek LNG after Russian attacks on its power system show how Black Sea and Balkan infrastructure is being adapted for resilience and diversification.
At the EU‑level, there is a broader 2026 agenda focused on reducing strategic dependencies, which includes more stringent climate‑related reporting and product‑law regimes affecting industrial and energy clients operating in or through the region.
Implications for law firms
Energy‑infrastructure projects—pipelines, interconnectors, LNG terminals, storage facilities, and renewable‑energy plants—will generate complex, multi‑jurisdictional mandates in project finance, construction, regulatory approvals, and cross‑border dispute resolution.
Firms must follow evolving EU energy‑market rules, including unbundling, network‑code compliance, and sustainability reporting, and explain their application to non‑EU states aligned with the Energy Community or pursuing accession.
As strategic‑autonomy and security concerns rise, energy and infrastructure projects may attract greater scrutiny under foreign‑investment screening regimes, sanctions policies, and export‑control rules, particularly where non‑EU or non‑NATO capital is involved.
5. Digitalisation, Legal Tech, and a Fragmented Security Environment
Finally, 2026 will see continued digitalisation of legal systems and services across Europe, alongside heightened cyber‑risk and contested information spaces. Even if Western and Northern Europe dominate in legal‑tech adoption, Southeastern Europe is subject to the same EU‑level regulatory currents and regional security pressures.
Dynamics for 2026
The European legal‑services market as a whole is expected to expand steadily from 2025 to 2030, driven in part by more complex regulation and increased cross‑border work, with legal‑tech adoption cited as a key efficiency and transparency driver.
The Europe legal case‑management software market alone is estimated at around USD 2.15 billion in 2025 and projected to more than double by 2033, with Western Europe leading but with spillover and vendor expansion into other regions.
EU‑level initiatives on democracy, rule of law, and the digital public sphere stress combating disinformation, foreign interference, and cyberattacks, implying more robust regulation of digital platforms, data use, and cybersecurity obligations.[
Global‑risk assessments repeatedly flag cyber‑espionage, critical‑infrastructure disruption, and erosion of civic freedoms as major medium‑term risks, which intersect with legal work around surveillance, data protection, and emergency powers.
Implications for law firms
Law firms in Southeastern Europe will face rising client demand in data protection, cybersecurity compliance, and platform regulation, especially for IT, telecoms, finance, and media clients active across borders.
Courts, registries, and public‑administration bodies are likely to deepen their own digitalization, increasing the importance of e‑filing, online case‑management, and remote hearings—areas where firms may need to invest in technology and training to remain competitive.
As legal‑tech platforms scale across Europe, mid‑sized and regional firms may find both opportunities (better workflow, cross‑border collaboration) and competitive threats (alternative legal service providers, online platforms), pushing them toward strategic partnerships or selective consolidation.
Your Strategic Partner for 2026 and Beyond
Walker Clark LLC supports law firms in Southeastern Europe and worldwide by turning these kinds of geopolitical and economic trends into concrete, firm‑specific strategies, planning tools, and implementation support that improve client service and profitability. Drawing on more than two decades of experience advising small and midsize firms in over 90 countries—including extensive work in emerging markets across eastern Europe—Walker Clark helps partners identify their highest‑impact strategic priorities, stress‑test them against coming changes in regulation and client demand, and then design practical initiatives in marketing, pricing, staffing, and quality management that can be executed with limited time and resources. By combining multidisciplinary diagnostics, realistic business planning, and proven methods for building sustainable quality and performance, Walker Clark enables firms not only to anticipate change, but to convert it into a durable competitive advantage in their local and cross‑border markets.
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